Hope's, Plan's, Execution, Glory and Blame were In The Spotlight for Torolco to have a Smashing result.
Our Hopes: There was a lot of Hope before the race by all race goers will the Wonder Filly win like a queen again or will Smashing get the better of her and most of us were of that view that it would be one or the other. The way in which ITS won in her previous starts has won all our hearts and the way Smashing has found one better in her always gave us Hope that she turns the table.If the race was run with that view in mind the outcome would be different but then there was the Human element "The Plan".
The Plan: As in most races everyone had a plan and it was simple how can we beat ITS. As most of us know she is a free striding horse and doesn't like being challenged, The Pesi Clan had 4 runners 3 potential pacemaker and Smashing. After watching the race a few times it was evident there were no Pacemakers as we all thought as if Celo Ray, Speerhead and Cammora who are mainly front runners made a fast pace it would help ITS settle well and if she did no one had a chance. So plan B was not to make the pace but pace with her and it was a very well Executed Plan.on the other hand Toroloco and Ridgeway's plan was simple settle them early and do your best in the straight.
The Execution: If you watch the race from the word go make a note at the 200 mtr mark, Cammora dint get off to a good start so PS Chauhan on C Rey rushed his horse to be alongside ITS, at about the 350 mark when Cammora came alongside PS eased out and let cammora make the pace alongside ITS. at that point Zervan astride Cammora could have easily hit the front but chose to pace alongside the favourite. at the first bend it was clear ITS dint like being challenged and tried to run Cammora of the track this is when she blew her bolt and tore away from the field if you watch the race closely S Zervan was only interested to run alongside ITS till the 900mtr marker till the horse gave up and his job was done. Pesi as we all know is a very shrewd trainer who not only knows what his horses like or dislike but also keeps an eye on the opposition his only problem here is he thought like most of us that ITS was the only danger to Smashing but in all the glory forgot about the (mad Bull) ToroLoco to have the final Glory.
The Glory: The fast pace set by ITS worked to perfection for Smashing who ran a great race but Toroloco out stayed the former. It was a great race with a great finish ITS was Green and lost because she was not race ready and the Plan to wreck her rythm worked but not for the ones who wanted the Glory.
The Blame: We have to blame someone or it would be a perfect world.Backers of ITS are blaming the trainer and Jockey for blowing up the horse, Backers of Smashing are blaming the jockey for making his move too early but if you watch the final 600 mtr you will see Suraj made his move earlier at about the 400mtr mark and Trevor made his move at about the 300mtr mark the problem was they dint have Toroloco in mind they were certain if they get ITS they will win but as they say there is no certainty in horse racing Pesi should have known better.
Moral of the Story: What is good for the Goose is Good for the Gander.
I have uploaded a copy of the Race please take the time to view it several times and understand how the race was run, what the intent was and how did it affect the outcome. Thing will be different next time as now we have 3 Champions.There will be new conspiracy theories when all 3 meet but as far ITS is concerned she is a Champion, Good horses win Good races but Champions know how to win them. Unless her trainer turns her into another Becket.
Our Hopes: There was a lot of Hope before the race by all race goers will the Wonder Filly win like a queen again or will Smashing get the better of her and most of us were of that view that it would be one or the other. The way in which ITS won in her previous starts has won all our hearts and the way Smashing has found one better in her always gave us Hope that she turns the table.If the race was run with that view in mind the outcome would be different but then there was the Human element "The Plan".
The Plan: As in most races everyone had a plan and it was simple how can we beat ITS. As most of us know she is a free striding horse and doesn't like being challenged, The Pesi Clan had 4 runners 3 potential pacemaker and Smashing. After watching the race a few times it was evident there were no Pacemakers as we all thought as if Celo Ray, Speerhead and Cammora who are mainly front runners made a fast pace it would help ITS settle well and if she did no one had a chance. So plan B was not to make the pace but pace with her and it was a very well Executed Plan.on the other hand Toroloco and Ridgeway's plan was simple settle them early and do your best in the straight.
The Execution: If you watch the race from the word go make a note at the 200 mtr mark, Cammora dint get off to a good start so PS Chauhan on C Rey rushed his horse to be alongside ITS, at about the 350 mark when Cammora came alongside PS eased out and let cammora make the pace alongside ITS. at that point Zervan astride Cammora could have easily hit the front but chose to pace alongside the favourite. at the first bend it was clear ITS dint like being challenged and tried to run Cammora of the track this is when she blew her bolt and tore away from the field if you watch the race closely S Zervan was only interested to run alongside ITS till the 900mtr marker till the horse gave up and his job was done. Pesi as we all know is a very shrewd trainer who not only knows what his horses like or dislike but also keeps an eye on the opposition his only problem here is he thought like most of us that ITS was the only danger to Smashing but in all the glory forgot about the (mad Bull) ToroLoco to have the final Glory.
The Glory: The fast pace set by ITS worked to perfection for Smashing who ran a great race but Toroloco out stayed the former. It was a great race with a great finish ITS was Green and lost because she was not race ready and the Plan to wreck her rythm worked but not for the ones who wanted the Glory.
The Blame: We have to blame someone or it would be a perfect world.Backers of ITS are blaming the trainer and Jockey for blowing up the horse, Backers of Smashing are blaming the jockey for making his move too early but if you watch the final 600 mtr you will see Suraj made his move earlier at about the 400mtr mark and Trevor made his move at about the 300mtr mark the problem was they dint have Toroloco in mind they were certain if they get ITS they will win but as they say there is no certainty in horse racing Pesi should have known better.
Moral of the Story: What is good for the Goose is Good for the Gander.
I have uploaded a copy of the Race please take the time to view it several times and understand how the race was run, what the intent was and how did it affect the outcome. Thing will be different next time as now we have 3 Champions.There will be new conspiracy theories when all 3 meet but as far ITS is concerned she is a Champion, Good horses win Good races but Champions know how to win them. Unless her trainer turns her into another Becket.
30 comments:
nice work
very well written.
i think, pesi plan was brilliant to keep the other red cap right behind ITS to confuse martin...
Weight analasys of ITS
I have noticed the weight increase of 16 kgs plus 4 kg extra weight that has to carry compare to invitation.So it has a total over weight of 20 kg which is some thing very difficult any horse can defy and win.In my opinion trainer and owner knows the fact,offcourse not blaming them for their confidence.It is some thing punters can analyze and decide on betting prospective.
Mr Prasad,
I have no Idea how you got your weight theory from following are the facts of the invitation cup.
Since invitaion cup Wieghts of ITS and Smashing went up by 4.5 kgs from 55.5 to 60 kgs. Toroloco wieght went up by 2.5 kgs from 57 to 59.5 and Ridgeway went down by 1.5 kgs from 57 to 55.5
Toroloco was 2 kgs better in terms but had lost by 6.5 kg in the invitation cup.
So I have no Idea how u got ur 16kgs plus 4kgs equation
Hi Vizak
I noticed the display of weights on screen by BTC where it shows previous weight and current weight before the start of the race.I noticed the difference of weights for ITS as 16kg up
wrong info
Hi Vizag
I have the habbit of watching weights and paddock looks for each race and my betting and selections are purely based on these two factors.From Last one year I take your selections also in mind before I bet.I have a strong feeling that you have some strong internal connections for your superb tips.It is just my thought may be I am wrong.
I did read lot of books on paddock looks and watched 20000 plus horses(I gauess)so closely for positive and negative points.I realized horse fitness comes first then merit,speed etc
Vizag
It is the fact I saw on weights display
Even I have seen that the weight of its has increased by 16 kegs from its Mumbai weight
Mr Prasad and Ravi,
Please accept my apologies I have just realised you were talking about the horses weight.
Yes I think her Weight was 463 kgs compared to 447 when she last ran in bangalore. Keep in mind she had lost condition after her runs in calcutta.
Her winning weights are as follows Mysore 1000 g 466 kgs-Calcutta 1000 g 456- calcutta oaks 464- Cal Derby
466 Mumbai derby 449 and Inv Cup 447.......... So if you see her average winning weight is about 460 kgs so I don't believe she was unfit. She did a lot of traveling after Calcutta hence had lost weight that's all.
Once again I do apologise for my over sight but I don't believe she ran unfit,
Mr.Vizag
No apologies please,it is a professional debate,often all do mistakes.Your logic looks good.
I didn't say the horse is unfit.Usually I eat ranging from 20k to peti if i don't like in paddock.In this case,ITS coat is on par with the coat it has during mumbai parade that is why I am not dared to eat even though I am tempted to do so by weights analasys(considering long gap).Please note invitation coat is not on par with Indian derby coat for ITS.
With my experience in most cases if the horse weight goes up by 8 to 10 kg plus compared to previous weight is always a risk bet and tempt me to eat if I found any other negative point in Paddock looks.If the horse weight loose by 15 kg plus also a risky bet.Below 5 kg minus is a positive point in most cases.
one more strong reason skipped in writing is,i did avoided eating ITS, though Smashing coat is good I saw first time(I am not sure on prvoius meet of smashing as i missed it) with red bandages(not really bandages it is grips)which is another negative point for first time wearing.
Perfect anlysis, keep it up.
Perfect anlysis, keep it up.
Perfect anlysis, keep it up.
I never exposed so far to any blogs,from here onwards whenever i watch live races from home,i can give my selections in comments section of Vizag blog just before 10 min from start of each race based on what it is today on paddock merit and last and least the horse merit as per the records,just watch it.I have great respect to Vizag for his voluntere work and I am with him always.It is just a passion.
Dear Vizak
We knew Prsad is your ardent fan from years together,we need not go
through your blog ,prasad will tell your selections if you wake him up midnight also(SAY IN THE DREMAS ALSO) ,(of course he works in the night time only ,as he is working for american company),from the begining he was telling he want to eat ITS ,BUT AFTER SEEING THE HORSE HE CHNGED HIS VERSION, he made me to play ITS before few secons of horses are stalling ,
of course no regrets,
prior to that he advised strongly to play Succex downs
Regards
YLRao
Muscat-Oman( i play from Oman)
in the spotlight gamble race
Dear vizak where r u from
Dear vizak dnt put in mind these comments
I dont think any of the comments are offence so I dont see the point of being Upset. As long as the debate is in good faith I am more then happy to have constructive critisizm.
VI,
If Pesi is a shrewd trainer, is the inference that Paddy is dumb? A professional trained to win classics that he is, should more shrewd, more experienced than Pesi. The bottom line is, there is something more than what meets they eye.
Thats a harsh on your behalf to assume that Padu is dumb. I guess you fall the "Blame Someone" Category.
VI, you didn't get my point, which i though you would. I meant to say Paddy is more shrewd that Pesi is, the interconnection of the trainers due to the owner factor MAY have been decisive. FYI, ITS closed at around 72paisa, and in the last 5 mins, it drifted almost 10-12 paisa. You will obviously know what i'm referring to. Also, ITS was not the same horse on that day, nobody would know better than the ones who are in charge of her. People who watched the ITS on track in the lead up to that race day would confirm that she was not responding that well on track. I hope i'm clear now.
Hmmm interesting.... I did see her paddock conditions and she looked fine however a lack of run was the only doubt in the mind of most people. The drift in odds was correct but as you know smashing was backed down from 3-1 to 5/2 so obviously the bookies would have to increase the odds on ITS to balance the books.
I understand your point of view but I dont believe there was any internal hanky panky.... Both trainer are beyond that as themselves or there owners "Bar One" dont do it for money its more about pride.
when you look at the race card it was clear that 3 horses were entered to make the pace for Smashing including Paddu and his jockey. But Pesi is smart enough to know that if his horses made the pace ITS will out stay Smashing hence this Ploy and it worked well but fell in the hands of the third party.
In Regards to ITS fitness a point to ponder upon. After personally timing the Secionals she ran the upto 1800 mtrs in almost under the courses record timing.5 flt was under 60 seconds,6flg in 1.12.3,7flg(1.24.2)8 flg(1.36.8)9flg(1.48.7)(the current record for 9 flg is 1.48.4)if she was not racing fit of she would have finished way down the track. For the Record Smashing won a mile and 9 flg this season 1.37.7 and 1.50.14. Toroloco in 1.38.6 and 1.51.7.
I have a good feeling that you are a knowledgeable person and have a fair idea on who you are and I hope you take my explanation in good faith.
The reason for my topic was very simple It was fantastic Plan that went south that's all because no one expected any other horse to win even the commentator said it was a stunning Upset when on Paper toroloco was the third fancied runner.
there is a old saying " When something is good its Ok, But when something is too Good it Spoils the System".
Mystical did it,Southern Empire did it,Set Alight did it Becket Did it... Now its all In the Spotlight.
I have been in the game for atleast 40 years but I have to admit u eat the cake for your skills of understanding horse racing is amazing. I am surprised you don't write for some leading Website or Newspaper.
I own a few horses and was wondering if I can have your contact details so we can have a chat.
In a nutshell:All three horses has good coat
1.ITS-long gap plus 20 kg weight plus it was colic 10 days before the race day
2.Smashing--Wearing grips/Bandages first time, may be tendon issues
3.Toloroco--Fittest with good coat ultimately own
Demerits of Horse handicapping:
Assume if the horse own at a weight of 50 kg by good margin like 5 to 6 lengths and assume it is levied a penalty of 7 kg for its next run that means it will run at 57 kg in the same class.In horse body weight prospective assume that its body weight increases 7 kg,in my view the bearing on horse will be 7+7=14 kg which is 57+7=64 kg which is always negative point.Assume if horse body weight came down by 7 kg compared to previous run which means it is 7-7=0 kg in other words 57-7=50 kg which means it is technically running at the same weight compared to previous run which is a positive point.
Again please note that if the body weight changes plus or minus 10 kg above has to be taken negative as something wrong with the animal.Handicapers never count this body weight that is why most of the time relative handicapping fails in this kind of scenarios.
Expert comments welcome.
iam a ring un official book maker;
ofcourse i ran book book failed in bangalore;
I have eaten 25 k on In The Spot light for only one reason long gap
iam in the horse racing since 30 years;
my judgement fetched me
love
ramana
www.lekhari.com
anonymous sunny said...
1.4w
2.9w
3.9w
4.6w
5.6p
6.2w
7.14p
8.5p
9.2w
sunny
old malakpet
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