"Success Leaves Clues"

Hi guys this week I am going share my views on basics of punting or bookmaking which ever angle you take when you enter the race course. My involvement in horse racing has made me learn a lot but every day I tell myself I know it all I learn something new.

Being involved in the sport of Kings or in India as it is called " The Rule of the Rich and Powerful" gives you that rush to be successful. There are not a lot of people who are very successful in this field but if you know someone who is then stick to them as " Success Leaves Clues".

Today I am going to take some time and point out a few things we do and many things we don't. If this sport was as simple as what you see is what you get then your will never get it. So please take your time and read what I am saying, Understand it, See what you do and think of what you don't as there is a good chance you don't want to see what you are doing wrong.

When I was a young kid I asked a very famous bookmaker as to " Why do Punter say that they never win". The answer was: " Son its not that they never Win, They want to win all the time and that's a Problem". When a punter realises that there is no recovery in horse racing they will never say they never win.

At the moment you will not understand what it meant because I dint for many years till I saw what he meant.Now I am going to explain a few things we do.

FIND THE RIGHT RACE: 

Most punter play 8 out of 10 races in a day an average good day will give you a 40% strike rate, to achieve that strike rate average Odds of a winner is likely to be 16/10-2/1. If you do the numbers you will never win. Finding the right race to back the right horse is easier said then done but if you discipline your self you will make it easier on yourself to  find the right race. I have know punters who would only back a certain Owner-Jockey and Trainer combination and if that was not there he would not play. Although this is an example there are various factors in picking the right race to suit your style of punting.

Making the Right Choice: 

This topic has a broad range and every punter has a unique style and I hope this topic suits their style of punting.

a) Do Your Homework: They say going for races is a luxury as we bet or lay with our disposable income.There is all likelihood that a punter that backs or lays Rs 1000 per race has worked for at least a day to earn that money but how many of them spend 30 minutes to study the form of the race they bet in my guess is 10% or less. In my opinion no matter what you like in the race it is very important to study the form of the entire field following is what you need to see when studying a race.

b)Don't see the night odds: The most common mistake we make is we first see the night odds and then study the form of the horses in the money by doing that you are running with blinkers as your focus is limited to a few and when you do that you are assuming not assessing.

c) Asses the Field: Go from top to bottom i.e. Race name, class,Prize Money,Distance,terms and horses from 1 to the end.

1)A Race name is important as it carries a sentimental value, A lot of people asked me why I picked " Purple Glow" @40-1 when it won the answer was in the name of the race the horse belonged to Ramu and was with his first jockey and Running " The Flirting Vision Plate" If you did your homework you would know Flirting Vision belonged to Ramu and won a Derby for him such observations are important.

2)Class of the race is important as it indicates intent of various trainers in India,If you divide your study in 4 Categories you will best be able to judge intent of various trainers, Owners and Jockeys.Cat 1 is Gamble Class i.e Class 4 and Below, Cat 2 is Form Class i.e. Class 1-2-3 and Cat 3: Prestige Class where Mainly Trophy races or Graded race and Lastly Baby Class for Youngster.The reason I have divided them in 4 Categories as each individual category has its own pattern of running which I will explain later in Patterns.

3) Prize money: This factor is important because it indicates on how the horses will be run, Lower the prize money higher the odds of a gamble horse or horses participating in that race it will also help in focusing on gamble trainers and Owners and their respective horses.

4)Distance : This is important to asses many factors as not only horses are affected by distance jockeys and trainers are also affected.As some horses are more suitable to certain distances so are the training methods of certain trainers and the riding style of certain jockeys.Example I Ghatala horses are winners for 6 and 7 flg races very rarely you see his horses tried or winning over that distance this does not include classic horses.The riding style of P S Chauhan see him win races up to a mile beyond that he does not have a good success rate.

5)Terms of the Race: Terms are very essential to spot a drop in class and also spotting potential Gambles.e.g If a 6 yo horse has been running in open handicap races and has suddenly been places in race termed 5yo and Over he will perform well as he is running amongst his age group.Similarly If a 3yo is running in a handicap race after failing in 3yo terms races he has a clear chance of improving.On the Weekend Loyal King ran a handicap Class 4 race after finishing 9 lengths behind Deja Vu and Manyatta in a Grade 3 race no one seem to give him credit but that was a Huge drop in class.

d)Reading Form of a Horse: Its always important to study current past and historical "Racing" form of horses, Most decisions are made on the last run of horses,current track work,jockey, equipment,trainer or Odds and none of these factors which is I will discuss in "Process of Elimination" are not relevant if the actual form of the horse is not good enough.Historical form (about 12-18 months old) is important to asses the class of the horse,Past form is relevant to last season which will help you gauge how the horse has run and where does he sit on handicap and Lastly current form:See how the horse has been running in this season watch every race he ran no matter what, see what he was doing and how he was moving and how far back did he finish and was he improving. I picked Sound on the weekend In race 5(12th 21 lgths behind winner) and 53 (6th 16 lgths behind winner) he ran in Class 4 running way off the pace and then finishing on.His last run was in VB came from off the pace and finished an easy 6th 8.5 lengths behind the winner.In this run there was a good spurt positive change in equipment and Jockey and after the process of elimination of other horses he was looking like a good bet as intent was clear.The best way to judge form is to watch every race the following day after the races and see what the other horses were doing in the back end of the field we only focus on the front but if you focus on the back markers you will notice horses that are hiding true form make a note of them and follow their progress when they next run look for sutle changes and then make your decision.

e)Process of Elimination:After you have studied the form of the horses make a note of the ones with a chance of winning and dont worry if you have 6 horses that you feel are likely to win the race. Then for things like jockey, equipment, trainer distance and handicap you are more likely to eliminate half the horses when you apply "Asses the Field" logic. After this process there will be one or two horses that will stand out and then its up to Luck which horse is better.

f) Pattern:  This should be your determining factor on which horse u should back.Every trainer has a pattern when he intends to try his horses.There are 5 Types of Trainers. Great Trainers dont need to name them, Good Trainers These are the ones who are consitantly trying,Gamble trainers whos horses sprout wings when the Right money comes their way,Hopeless trainers you should know them by now and Puppets these are trainers who have licences to accomodate other trainer horses.If you Ignore horses belonging to the last 3 categories and foucs your selection the top 2 catogaries you will do well. I am not going to name names on who I believe are the good bad and ugly trainers but you should do your own analysis on that. I am not suggesting to ignore horses belonging to Gamble trainers if you like their horses only decide in the last 3 minutes before race time as the odds will dictate intent.

Finally I hope I have shared some if any good pointers in helping you having a successful day at the races and remember Racing is for Life treat it as a job or your own business and be consistent with it the rewards will come.

Don't become a prey to bloggers and websites who want to sell you tips and throwing out challenges to others and then retracting them when they fail become the master of your own destiny as If they were making so much money on their "EXPERT TIPPING" then why are they charging people to share their " Expert Knowledge".

Like I have said before "Success Leaves Clues" and you will not find such people boasting to you about their Success. 

Good Luck till the next Topic.