Mumbai 18 Dec 2011

Today does look like a day of favorites or fancied runners. H Metha as usual has well placed runners however the intent of those horses will be evident at race time. I Wish Mr Mallya a very happy birthday and for the sake of the punters I hope he has a good day.


Race 1: On paper Flashforward, should win but being a H Metha horse its best to decide in the ring. If the former is not tried then the following horses have merit.horses 1-7-9-10-11 have some merit and it better to look for a value bet here if the favorite loses favor in the betting ring.Rio Del Ray, is tracking well and like the mumbai stretch and is definitely a horse that will keep the favorite honest.Stylish Strokes, has been consistent but off the track for a while.Alaska, ran a good forward mock race the distance is sharp but should be right there.Athos, is tracking well too and will be right there.

Tips: Flashforward,  Rio Del Ray,(note)       Upset : Alaska,

Race 2: First timers so hard to say plus all the horses here are well bred and in a forward condition so it will be a interesting finish.Asahi,Wings Of Glory, and Lavender Brown, my top 3 picks the first named will be the one to beat and the last named can surprise.

Tips :Asahi,Wings Of Glory,                         Upset: Lavender Brown,

Race 3: Awesome Smile,  will be tried for the first time is a nice animal and if all goes well should prevail in this set, horses to beat are 4-6-8-15.Jacques, showed a tremendous turn of foot in a mock race is the one to note and should be right there.El Wonder, has a bad draw but is tracking well has good initial speed and is the likely upset.

Tips: Awesome Smile, Jacques,                    Upset: El Wonder,

Race 4 : Be Cool, is a favorite by default but there are a few hidden horses here who can beat her. Horses 1-2-3-7-8-11 are the ones in question. Wild Imagination, probably has the best resume of the lot and will be fighting every inch of the way.Diamondzip, has merit but hard to recommend as the trainers intent is unknow.Grey Phantom, has some fitness issues but has now come to a very talented trainer with a bright future he can upset if he has come good.Super Swallow, and Herzeliyah, are closely matched you can never discount a Ramu horse in a cup race hence the first named can do it was seen finishing on along with the second named in the last run the second named was moving the better and if tried he will be right there.

Tips: Herzeliyah,Wild Imagination,         Upset: Super Swallow,


Race 5: First Timers hence avoidable but Alecto, has a very good Resume  as follows you do the maths.Dear Henry,Flying Glory,Hotstepper,Juventus,Czarina,Their Lil Sister,


Tips: Alecto,Ice Pick,      Upset: Patcha,

Race 6:Sergeant Pepper, is coming back after a long holiday has been on the track for a while without a race is a clear indication of the trainers lack of confidence on the horse plus carrying top weight and over a mile will make this a very Interesting race I do believe he will run a fair race and likely win it but I dont believe it will be easy hence its best to avoid or halve your bets. Neath, is a ordinary horse is receiving weight but no my cup of tea. King Julien, last run was good but nothing special.Smart Hunter, beat no one is a smart horse and will be in the fray of things.Sound Of River, is a one paced animal and its difficult to recommend her.Cypress Point, is a average horse but will run a fair race.However the horse that has caught my attention is Exuberance, who was given a very easy run last time came from nowhere to finish in the ruck and was moving very very well at the finish the fact that the trainer has opted for a good apprentice and claimed allowance shows intent carrying only 46.5 kgs and getting an average weigth of 9.5 kgs from all fancied runners over a mile will make a difference if the horse is tried which is likely and is worth a eachway or place bet.

Tips: Sergeant Pepper,Upset: Exuberance,

Race 7: Amadeus, has merit but lack of track work is a problem if he is fit he will win.Batista, is the only danger if any.

Tips: Amadeus,         Upset: Batista,

Race 8: This is a funny race as besides Star Alliance, the rest of the runners are running outside their pet distance. Camacho, is not outstanding but has a fair chance on jockey skills.Rajasthan Royals, is the danger and should be right there can upset note.

Tips : Camacho, Upset: Rajasthan Royals,

Race 9: THE CASINO ROYALE INDIAN 2000 GUINEAS (GR.1)

1) Astapi,: has come to hand ran a good race first up is just short of class here will the one bringing them in the straight will stay the trip and can finish on board, winning would be a great achievement for the upcoming trainer but is unlikely.

2) Cardinal, : Beautiful animal and a great galloper will get the mile but this Great Grand Uncle of Speed Six has a short burst plus the fact that he has only beaten horses like H Fantasy dims his chances will run a brave race can win but will have be at his best to do so.

3) El Clasico, : survived near death along with the jockey in pune. This is the horse that has improved by miles since being gelded his mock race was outstanding and his gallop was good enough for me to say that if there is a Upset he is the one. will have no problems staying the mile and will probably stay further should place and can win dont Ignore.

4) Knighton, : has done nothing wrong so far in this company the trip may be a bit sharp for him however he is a long striding horse and will relish the mumbai straight will be finishing on and will be right there.

5 ) Picasso,: He is the better of the Psi horses stamina is a ?? but in mile should not have any trouble been tracking well and loves the mumbai straight the jockeys talent is great and with some luck will finish in the top 3.

6) Pronto Pronto,: coming back after a long lay off has a great heart but will need a great run and effort to beat this set should run abrave race but I think he needs time.

7) Pronto Star, : If he wins here Y S Shrinath will be going for a very long holiday.

8) Sheriff,: 200-1

9) Speed Six,: This Great Gand Nephew of Cardinal has always had a lot of hype and support is a very nice animal with a very bad temprament. I have noticed over time that bangalore horses dont perform well first up on the mumbai track which is a negative too. Positive is the jockey which will be the deciding factor It would be a wonderful Birthday gift for Vijay Mallya if he win I dont like his chances but I do hope he wins for the sake of the Owners.

10) Indomitable, 200-1

This is a beautiful race to watch, Class,temperament and stamina will decide the winner along with a bit of luck. Although I do believe Picasso, is the best of the fancied runners and will run a brave race along with Speed Six, and Cardinal, my gut feeling is that there will be a upset and as mentioned before El Clasico,  and Knighton, are good candidates to do that hope Dallas Todiwalla comes to pick up the prize in a Mexican Suit.

Tips : Picasso,El Clasico,                 Upset: Knighton,


Race 10 : Mountain Prince, is a better animal then Coccinella, and should reflect that in the results however the large field will do no favors to the fancied runners who are drawn wide. Horses that can upset here are 1-3-11-12-16 and should be considered for minor bets or combinations.Celsius, has a good draw and can make it a start to finish affair,Golden Memory, was seen finishing on well in her last run and as most M Shah horses has a good chance to repeat and can upset.Hammerhead, gets a chance due to jockey factor but the horse that can win here is Royal Honour, if the jockey can take a good start he will be right there.

Tips: Mountain Prince,Royal Honour,         Upset: Celsius,


Days best: Awesome Smile,
Double: Awesome Smile,Amadeus,
Treble: Awesome Smile,Amadeus,Mountain Prince,
Win or Kaichi Bets: Awesome Smile,Amadeus,Mountain Prince,Sergeant Pepper,Camacho,Flashforward,
Eachway or Place bets: Royal Honour,El Clasico, Knighton,Exuberance,Herzeliyah,Super Swallow, El Wonder,Rio Del Ray,