Sunday, September 27, 2009

Pune 27 sept

For the sake of the punters I hope i am wrong today but O do believe today is a day of upsets Go VERY slow.

Race 1: Tricky VB Yowza, will win when asked to is tracking well enough to suggest fitness


Race 2: Mariposa, does not belong to this class should leave them standing if tried worth a punt.


Race 3: Once again the Favorite here is not Backable horse 3-5-6 hav a upper hand I am more inclined towards Honey Bee, who is running in her class for the first time today and tracking well enough to win make note.Silver Screen, is running her right distance today but in a lower class and weaker company and she can upset here should place by default


Race 4:Go Guzzi Go, Indian Summer, Toss up
Race 5: All the fancied runners had cut a very fast pace in race number 142 i.e horses 5-6-8 and I am not too sure if they have recovered well after such a hard race hence i am going for the well rested and well perpared Monopoly, to win from either Angels Glory, or Schnell, in what seems to be a nail bitter,


Race 6: Very open race however Hymns To Freedom, and Check Her Out, are my top two choices the latter would have been my first pick but the wide draw is the worry


Race 7: Looks Like a Imtiaz Sait Quinala Blumarine, was very impressive last time but has to beat stable mate Forever Young,
Tips; Blumarine, Forever Young, Upset: Alize,

Race 8: River StarRoaming Fame, Upset: Paris Hilton, (should place)

Race 9: Open race Seen It All, Easter LilyAshwa Prahar, are my top 3


Betting Guide:50 win 150 place

1st Jackpot: 3-5-6/1-3/4-5/2-3-4-6/6-9
2nd Jckpot : 4-5/2-3-4-6/6-9/3/1-7-9-10-14
1st Treble :2-6 /3-5-6/1-3
2nd and 3rd treble are covered by Jackpot


16 comments:

Jitendra Rawell said...

its a good stratergy to leave the first three fancied runners in the event and TIP the next best chances like this Atleast by theory of Probabilities Flukes will POP up.
Good Stratergy so that all long shots appear to have been tipped.

Jitendra Rawell said...

Its a good Stratergy you are adopting to leave out the first three probable favourites in a race and tip the next best chances.Like this it appears that Flukes have been Tipped because by Theory of probabilities the favourites have to get beat cyclically.
good Stratergy.

Jitendra Rawell said...

Its a good stratergy to leave out the first three fancied and Form horses tipped by one and all and then give the next best chances in your tips.
In this way by theory of probabilities a Fluke Wins
Good Stratergy

Horseman said...

My savior
Oh My dear Tiger, the courageous
thank you for this moments of wonderful analysis
and for the Honey Bee
you are my HOnEY for money.
and i am a BEE to your blog
my MOney needs are met by your
guidance.What a price!!!
beyond 10 to 1, 123 Rs for a tenner in the BTC tote
kudos to you
you are a Rebellion
you are a Revelation
you are Revered
by your followers like Easwara


thank you my dear Tiger

keep focusing
keep smiling
keep safe
love and blessings

easwaran

Jitendra Rawell said...

Its a good Stratergy to leave the first three fancied and tipped horses and give the tips from the balance field.
By theory of probabilities they click in rotation.
Really a good stratergy.

bihari said...

DELHI CHOICES := dt,29/09/09....
..................................
1)GREEN FUTURE (4)
2)TAKE A CHANCE (2)
3)MIDDLE MAN (2)
OUTSTANDING (5)
4)SHUB SHUBH (2)
THE ROCK (4)
5)POLISH BEAUTY ..(1)
OPERA ROYAL ...(2)
TIME AND AGAIN (4)
6)SAPHIRE.....(3)
ROMARIO.....(13)
KING OF THE RING (8)
..........GOOD LUCK...........

Surendra prasad Sao said...

Dear Jitendra Rawell

I have read the Strategy written by you. Please elaborate further with possitive intent, if you think this can be useful.

Congratulation to Tiger for One More Good Punting Day on last Sunday.

with regards to you & Our Tiger.

Surendra Prasad Sao

Jitendra Rawell said...

Dear Mr surendra prasad,
what i meant was in racing if we want to get a good"GOLI" then its wise to leave the Public choices.You would notice that its the law of nature that a series of fav will lead to one or two Outsiders.Take the case on Sunday.Lagads horse in the 2nd was 55/100.On my Dynamic rating MAPIOSA was coming so i left the odds on and took my chances on MAPIOSA but unfortunately the race was null and void.Same way some strategists they purposely dont tip the favourites(top three) and horses which are tipped by mass and go for seconds(fourth,fifth,sixth hypothetically).So naturally they will be GOLI and in 7 races 2 such long shots click and its good for Followers as they get good ROI.Return on Investements.Every body has his own system and strategy of giving their choices.

I believe in giving the Top four in ratings Religously with a thumb rule that not always the TOP rating horse wins because in racing its not onlr rating but several factors which rule the result.Take the case of waht happened on sunday.

Charan Kumar said...

http://racing-info.blogspot.com/2009/09/ulta-chor-kotwal-ko-daate.html

Tiger said...

Dear Jitendra Rawell,

I do understand ur point however i dont select horses based on this theory, honestly i am not a big punter nor do i back horses in all races I am more inclined to lay horses then back them but because i know everyone is not like me i advise as to what i like.

Now going back to your asumtion to my theory of tipping is interestion but not right.

Normally when i read a card I see the horses that are in the money then i see if there are any horses that can beat the fancied runners and tip accordingly, once in a while I strongly feel the favorite is not backable and advise accordingly or not tip them in the top 3 at all.... many times i feel a horse is outstanding in a set and will make a comment on why i believe the horse has a good chance of winning on the day.

now if you go back and read my tips and comments you will understand that i dont play the Numbers theory.....

Best Regards

P.s Charan i have realised after posting your link that i am going to get in trouble but i am not going to take it off because doesnot matter what i do I am always in trouble so Fukit

Surendra prasad Sao said...

Dear Jitendra Rawell (RUCHI)

I understand you have been a student of Shri Prakash Gosavi & when you had started your blog it was with technical help of him.

Shi Prakash Gosavi today is a highly respected Blogger Not only because of FINOO but his politness & respectful behaviour.

"Tiger" (I never take his real name because of respect) atleast, is commanding an equal respectful possition, if not more & he is writing his popular & success ful blog since a very long time.

I am not commenting any thing against your personal position but in racing you, I and many more are
not even a graduate, if Tiger is a Doctorate.

You being a student of a respected proffessor (I mean Shri Prakash Gosavi) should be more polite & respectful.

Popularity does not come easly, it comes with sucess which comes with hard work & time.

From Your first writing I had a doubt that you want to put our Tiger down, therefore I asked for a clarification. Thanks for Your reply but let me tell you no probbality theory works in racing.

For selection of flukes We have to keep a long record of the horses who are deleberately under performing & therefore reducing handicap & increasing Odds.One fine day that horse will run its fav. distance & WIN with ordinary jockey & No Track Work.

This is one method,We do not no what method TIGER is using, May be his strong sixth sence along with his own logical technique which must not be a simple.

You just see the maturity of Tiger, How nicely & politely he has replied you.

I too follow Tiger & never write harsh to any one. Here I have made an effort to correct you before it is too late. Some how I have a feeling that You are going to a "Shining Sun of Tommorrow" because you come from a school of high respect.

With Respect to You, Shri Gosavi (I have used his name several time) & Tiger.

Surendra Prasad Sao

Horseman said...

mr.surendraprasad sao
only one thing works in racing is
money management, and emotional management.

and what works for one person may not work for the other.
taste differs Sir
Pareto's Principle - The 80-20 Rule
How the 80/20 rule can help you be more effective.
if you know about this principle use this to get more out of less effort
n 1906, Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto created a mathematical formula to describe the unequal distribution of wealth in his country, observing that twenty percent of the people owned eighty percent of the wealth.
see the next posting,------continued

Horseman said...

In the late 1940s, Dr. Joseph M. Juran inaccurately attributed the 80/20 Rule to Pareto, calling it Pareto's Principle. While it may be misnamed, Pareto's Principle or Pareto's Law as it is sometimes called, can be a very effective tool to help you manage effectively.
Where It Came From
After Pareto made his observation and created his formula, many others observed similar phenomena in their own areas of expertise. Quality Management pioneer, Dr. Joseph Juran, working in the US in the 1930s and 40s recognized a universal principle he called the "vital few and trivial many" and reduced it to writing. In an early work, a lack of precision on Juran's part made it appear that he was applying Pareto's observations about economics to a broader body of work. The name Pareto's Principle stuck, probably because it sounded better than Juran's Principle.

As a result, Dr. Juran's observation of the "vital few and trivial many", the principle that 20 percent of something always are responsible for 80 percent of the results, became known as Pareto's Principle or the 80/20 Rule.
What It Means
The 80/20 Rule means that in anything a few (20 percent) are vital and many(80 percent) are trivial. In Pareto's case it meant 20 percent of the people owned 80 percent of the wealth. In Juran's initial work he identified 20 percent of the defects causing 80 percent of the problems. Project Managers know that 20 percent of the work (the first 10 percent and the last 10 percent) consume 80 percent of your time and resources. You can apply the 80/20 Rule to almost anything, from the science of management to the physical world.

You know 20 percent of your stock takes up 80 percent of your warehouse space and that 80 percent of your stock comes from 20 percent of your suppliers. Also 80 percent of your sales will come from 20 percent of your sales staff. 20 percent of your staff will cause 80 percent of your problems, but another 20 percent of your staff will provide 80 percent of your production. It works both ways.
How It Can Help You
The value of the Pareto Principle for a manager is that it reminds you to focus on the 20 percent that matters. Of the things you do during your day, only 20 percent really matter. Those 20 percent produce 80 percent of your results. Identify and focus on those things. When the fire drills of the day begin to sap your time, remind yourself of the 20 percent you need to focus on. If something in the schedule has to slip, if something isn't going to get done, make sure it's not part of that 20 percent.

There is a management theory floating around at the moment that proposes to interpret Pareto's Principle in such a way as to produce what is called Superstar Management. The theory's supporters claim that since 20 percent of your people produce 80 percent of your results you should focus your limited time on managing only that 20 percent, the superstars. The theory is flawed, as we are discussing here because it overlooks the fact that 80 percent of your time should be spent doing what is really important. Helping the good become better is a better use of your time than helping the great become terrific. Apply the Pareto Principle to all you do, but use it wisely.
Manage This Issue
Pareto's Principle, the 80/20 Rule, should serve as a daily reminder to focus 80 percent of your time and energy on the 20 percent of you work that is really important. Don't just "work smart", work smart on the right things.

this is posted out of respect to "Vilfredo Pareto"

I live in Bangalore and attend all races at BTC, including Gymkhana races.

cheers
easwaran

Jitendra Rawell said...

Dear Mr sao,
i thank you for your kind message.If you feel and have concluded that i am trying to put someone down you are sadly mistaken.

I dont see and assure you that there was no hidden agenda in my message to TIGER.

I would like to conclude by saying that in all fields especially in racing no body is a doctrate .The day one gets that feeling its his or hers doomsday.

For your kind information i would and always prefer to be a student and for academic and information sake i have been in racing since i was a 6 year old kid and iam now 45 so its 39 years.
Anyway there wont be any cause of concern now as in my professional field we are approaching our year end now and are in the last quarter so i will be professionally occupoed and will be shutting my BLOG.
All the best and apologises if any body has viewed my Stratergy comment to TIGER in a different and wrong way.
regards

Surendra prasad Sao said...

Dear Eswaran Sir.

Thanks for the 80-20 principal which is very interesting . I have saved this in my P.C.for use after detailed study.

I understand you are very senior by age & therefore in experience of various aspects in life.Please continue to make our life more comfertable by your knowladge.

I would like to more about immotional management in general life as well as in horse racing.

I shall be thankful if you can give some simple TIPS on money management in racing.

Please post your reply on the new posting of TIGER's blog, if you want to post in general, otherwise please send to me by mail sps08051953@gmail.com.

At present I am out of Bangalore but would like to meet you on return. Please mail me your Mobile Number.

With Regards .

Surendra Prasad Sao

Surendra prasad Sao said...

Dear Jitendra Rawell

Thanks for your reply. It shows your lion's heart.Please take my critisism as a comment from a well wisher,no hard feeling please.

I too work in a multi billion company at senior executive level & do understand the year end pressure.Please see if you can spare some time for this extra curriculam,If not at all possible,you can rejoin after the work pressure is over.Your long experience should not be unused.

Occasionaly I have been opening your blog & read it with interest.Some time please publish a summary analysis of your postings, specialy on the Astrology Part as this is a new method and if I am not wrong you are the only regular writer on this line.

With Regards

Surendra Prasad Sao

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