Sunday, August 26, 2012

Pune 26th Aug 2012

Race 1: Gamble race but horses 8-10-11 should dominate the finish.Oluchi, has run in a far superior company and if right will be hard to beat likes this track too and inform jockey hence no escuses today. Fantastic Kingdom, should improve from last run and will be the one to beat.Tomorrows Dreams, has merit but being a Antia horse best to decide at race time not likely to be tried today.

Tips: Fantastic Kingdom,                    Upset: Oluchi,

Race 2: A very open race horses 2-3-6-9 are my short listed 4.Commander, and Home Advantage, raced together and both will improve from that run the second named is well rested now and should improve further and will run closer to the former and can beat him too,Scarlatti, ran a great race first up after being gelded should improve further and make the finish interesting.Polynesia, is the joker in the pack here ran a very easy 4th first up is tracking well and if the intent is there she can upset this bunch should place at worst.

Tips:Home Advantage,  Upset :Polynesia,(note)

Race 3: Will be a toss up between 1-3-5. Pesi has a point to prove on Stromboli, who he believed was not ridden on merit by the jockey last time which is rubbish however its a dangerous sign and the horse should do well. I personally dont think so but could be absolutely wrong best to leave the race.Incognito, is the joker in the pack.

Tips: Hills And Heights,

Race 4: Toss up between Saints N Sinners, who is tracing very well and Elena, who is very speedy but sparingly raced it will be good to watch the match race and jockey skill will matter here best to watch the race as a new record could be in the making here.Weizhou, is very capable of upsetting in the set distance is sharp but the very fast pace will suit him and dont be surprised best to leave the race.

Race 5: Another open race horses 1-2-4-7 have a fair chance if tried.

Tips: Angels Quest,Good Looking,

Race 6: Capitano, or Hurricane Bird, tossup.

Race 7: This is a very weak set of 3yos and anything can happen She's Sweet, has run in a far superior company and has a good chance,Danse Debonaire, was given a very easy run first up where stablemate Three roses was tried today with sandesh intent is clear and will be the one to beat.Star Gazing, is the joker in the pack can place at good odds note can upset.

Tips: Danse DebonaireShe's Sweet,           Upset: Star Gazing,

Race 8: Royal Highness, and Alma Mater, toss up the former has a slight edge on handicap.

Tips: Royal Highness,

Race 9: Colours Flying,  and Al Attaturk,  should fight it out.

Tips: Colours Flying,

Race 10: Although both Star Storm, and Suntan Beauty, are not VB animals both are running here and should be a tussle between the 2. the second named is better. Sometimes in racing although form means everything sentimental value mean more and intent can be clear. Although everything is saying that Solid Rock, has no chance at all to win the THE SONALIKA PLATE (DIV-II) if you look at the breeding of Solid Rock (Barood / Sonalikasome weird intent or sentiment is eminent. Worth taking a small chance on the son of sonalika today after all horse racing is a game of luck anyways.

Tips: Suntan Beauty,                  Upset : Solid Rock (note)

Days best: Fantastic Kingdom
Win or Eachway bets: Fantastic Kingdom,Hills And Heights,Capitano, Colours Flying,

Eachway or Place Options: Polynesia,Danse Debonaire,Star Gazing,Royal Highness,
Bolt from the Blue: Solid Rock

Saturday, August 25, 2012

Pune 25 August 2012

Looks a card for fancied runners , Good Luck.

Race 1: Supreme Minstrel, is the intent is there should win here. the connections of  Cheponski, are running her in a higher class and has a good jockey and handicap can place or upset is the first named is not serious.

Tips: Supreme Minstrel

Race 2: Lake View, is running in the lowest class today should win is the intent is there.

Tips: Lake View,                   

Race 3:the manner of victory of  Carlyle Hills, was too good will repeat unless Marauder, who ran a great mock race has better ideas.

Tips: Carlyle Hills,

Race 4: Par mishap Rosalind, should win.Scorch, and Shabdeez, should keep her honest.

Tips: Rosalind,          Upset: Scorch,

Race 5: Turf Lightning, is in a different class however intent is unknown will be too speedy for this set. Make note of Seven Seas,  here is the joker in the pack and should place can upset.

Tips: Turf Lightning,                    Upset: Seven Seas

Race 6: Chemin De Fer, and White Knight, should fight it out jockey skills will prevail the second named can upset dont ignore.

Upset: White Knight,

Race 7: Winter Wind, should win here but Holiday Dancer, and Taj E Shahi, are capable of upsetting if tried. The last named I think is going to be targeted for The Vinayak Trophy which is for 3 maiden horses later in the year so ignored.

Tips :Winter Wind,              Upset: Holiday Dancer

Race 8: Josephine, and Masterofthesky, toss up, Jockey skills will matter I personally feel the first named will be very hard to beat today.

Tips: Josephine,

Days Best: Carlyle Hills

Double: Carlyle Hills,Supreme Minstrel,

Win Or Kaichi Prospects: Carlyle Hills,Supreme Minstrel, Lake View,Rosalind,  Turf LightningWinter Wind

Eachway or Place prospects: Seven SeasJosephine,

Bolt from the Blue: White Knight,

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Pune 19-8-2012

Race 1: Gamble race horses 3-4-5-6-8all have a chance to win if tried.Bat Yam, should have won in her last start in mumbai but was not tried not sure of intent today Twittillator, has a very good handicap and can take full advantage of it is better placed on handicap then the former.Lola, and Soli Deo Gloria, are dark horses both can upset is tried the second named is the best animal in the set but not sure of intent.

Tips: Twittillator,                                            Upset: Soli Deo Gloria,

Race 2: It will be a tragedy to see Stormy Princess, lose in this set but being a H Metha horse proceed with caution.

Tips: Stormy Princess,

Race 3: Toss up Star Of GibraltarEnlightenment, the second named is older but is better placed on handicap.

Tips": Enlightenment,

Race 4: Starsonboard, looks like a false favorite A Filly running in a span of 7 days is not going to be easy only advantage is there are not a lot of contenders here.Horses 5-8-9 should run well today.Gates Of Heaven, is H Metha best to decide at race time.Three Roses, is better then the favorite and will finish in that order. Make note of Taj E Shahi, here expect a gamble on her today and If I am right she will win.

Tips:(note) Taj E Shahi,Three Roses,

Race 5: This is a very open race but before i go there look at these stats: Pune 2011 race 57 half length behind Piccaso,Race 127 3rd sept 3.5 lengths behind Cardinal, Mumbai Dec 25th race 96 1.6 lengths behind Ramthambho, Previous Mumbai season race 127 beat Maddox by half length, and finished 3rd behind Pronto Pronto in the Colts trial stakes  4.5 lengths toady running in a Class 3 race???? Do u really think he belongs in this class I don't. I don't touch Antia and H Metha horses but If Secret Service, is tried today he will win. Knighton, had a good debut last year but been all down hill from there is tracking well but best to see how he runs,Etesian, has been prepared very well for this day and should be in the thick of things.

Tips:  Secret Service,                       Upset: Etesian

Race 6: If the intent is right Smart Strider, should win.

Tips: Smart Strider,

Race 7:Silver Birch, has done nothing wrong so far and should be the one to beat.   Neona looks very well prepared and should take full advantage of the wieghts, Make note of Supreme Minstrel, if there is a Upset then he will be the one.

Tips: Silver Birch,Upset: Supreme Minstrel

Race 8: Theology, was an impressive winner first up and should beat the rest of the fancied runners today however make note of Magdalena, who is blazing the track and can upset here.

Tips : Theology, Upset: Magdalena,

Race 9: Act Of War, and Admirals Stride, toss up latter is better. Fajr, is the joker in the pack and should be right there.

Tips: Admirals Stride,                    Upset: Fajr

Race 10: Worst race of the day and best to leave it. On paper and current form Purple Moon, looks a good bet but have no confidence in the connections intent plus the fact that there are some horses here that are running for the first time on this track and have never run sprints and it is very very likely they will sprout wings as the pace will be very fast. The horses in question are 1-2-4-10 all of them are running a distance that is very sharp but can win as they are all fresh.The reason i have mentioned 1)Victoire, here is because u very rarely see a N Lagad horse being tracing consistantly well he is.Alejandra, and  Tapocochahave good speed too and well bred so dont be surprised  Song Of Praise, has a H Metha jockey and loves this track can be his dusra.

Tips: Purple Moon,Alejandra,                 Upset: Victoire,

Win or Kaichi prospects: Stormy Princess,Smart Strider,Silver Birch,Theology,Admirals Stride

Eachway or Place Prospects: Enlightenment,Taj E Shahi,Secret Service,  Magdalena,Fajr,Alejandra

Bolt from the Blue: Victoire,

Saturday, August 18, 2012

"Success Leaves Clues"

Hi guys this week I am going share my views on basics of punting or bookmaking which ever angle you take when you enter the race course. My involvement in horse racing has made me learn a lot but every day I tell myself I know it all I learn something new.

Being involved in the sport of Kings or in India as it is called " The Rule of the Rich and Powerful" gives you that rush to be successful. There are not a lot of people who are very successful in this field but if you know someone who is then stick to them as " Success Leaves Clues".

Today I am going to take some time and point out a few things we do and many things we don't. If this sport was as simple as what you see is what you get then your will never get it. So please take your time and read what I am saying, Understand it, See what you do and think of what you don't as there is a good chance you don't want to see what you are doing wrong.

When I was a young kid I asked a very famous bookmaker as to " Why do Punter say that they never win". The answer was: " Son its not that they never Win, They want to win all the time and that's a Problem". When a punter realises that there is no recovery in horse racing they will never say they never win.

At the moment you will not understand what it meant because I dint for many years till I saw what he meant.Now I am going to explain a few things we do.

Most punter play 8 out of 10 races in a day an average good day will give you a 40% strike rate, to achieve that strike rate average Odds of a winner is likely to be 16/10-2/1. If you do the numbers you will never win. Finding the right race to back the right horse is easier said then done but if you discipline your self you will make it easier on yourself to  find the right race. I have know punters who would only back a certain Owner-Jockey and Trainer combination and if that was not there he would not play. Although this is an example there are various factors in picking the right race to suit your style of punting.

Making the Right Choice: 
This topic has a broad range and every punter has a unique style and I hope this topic suits their style of punting.
a) Do Your Homework: They say going for races is a luxury as we bet or lay with our disposable income.There is all likelihood that a punter that backs or lays Rs 1000 per race has worked for at least a day to earn that money but how many of them spend 30 minutes to study the form of the race they bet in my guess is 10% or less. In my opinion no matter what you like in the race it is very important to study the form of the entire field following is what you need to see when studying a race.
b)Don't see the night odds: The most common mistake we make is we first see the night odds and then study the form of the horses in the money by doing that you are running with blinkers as your focus is limited to a few and when you do that you are assuming not assessing.
c) Asses the Field: Go from top to bottom i.e. Race name, class,Prize Money,Distance,terms and horses from 1 to the end.
1)A Race name is important as it carries a sentimental value, A lot of people asked me why I picked " Purple Glow" @40-1 when it won the answer was in the name of the race the horse belonged to Ramu and was with his first jockey and Running " The Flirting Vision Plate" If you did your homework you would know Flirting Vision belonged to Ramu and won a Derby for him such observations are important.
2)Class of the race is important as it indicates intent of various trainers in India,If you divide your study in 4 Categories you will best be able to judge intent of various trainers, Owners and Jockeys.Cat 1 is Gamble Class i.e Class 4 and Below, Cat 2 is Form Class i.e. Class 1-2-3 and Cat 3: Prestige Class where Mainly Trophy races or Graded race and Lastly Baby Class for Youngster.The reason I have divided them in 4 Categories as each individual category has its own pattern of running which I will explain later in Patterns.

3) Prize money: This factor is important because it indicates on how the horses will be run, Lower the prize money higher the odds of a gamble horse or horses participating in that race it will also help in focusing on gamble trainers and Owners and their respective horses.
4)Distance : This is important to asses many factors as not only horses are affected by distance jockeys and trainers are also affected.As some horses are more suitable to certain distances so are the training methods of certain trainers and the riding style of certain jockeys.Example I Ghatala horses are winners for 6 and 7 flg races very rarely you see his horses tried or winning over that distance this does not include classic horses.The riding style of P S Chauhan see him win races up to a mile beyond that he does not have a good success rate.
5)Terms of the Race: Terms are very essential to spot a drop in class and also spotting potential Gambles.e.g If a 6 yo horse has been running in open handicap races and has suddenly been places in race termed 5yo and Over he will perform well as he is running amongst his age group.Similarly If a 3yo is running in a handicap race after failing in 3yo terms races he has a clear chance of improving.On the Weekend Loyal King ran a handicap Class 4 race after finishing 9 lengths behind Deja Vu and Manyatta in a Grade 3 race no one seem to give him credit but that was a Huge drop in class.
d)Reading Form of a Horse: Its always important to study current past and historical "Racing" form of horses, Most decisions are made on the last run of horses,current track work,jockey, equipment,trainer or Odds and none of these factors which is I will discuss in "Process of Elimination" are not relevant if the actual form of the horse is not good enough.Historical form (about 12-18 months old) is important to asses the class of the horse,Past form is relevant to last season which will help you gauge how the horse has run and where does he sit on handicap and Lastly current form:See how the horse has been running in this season watch every race he ran no matter what, see what he was doing and how he was moving and how far back did he finish and was he improving. I picked Sound on the weekend In race 5(12th 21 lgths behind winner) and 53 (6th 16 lgths behind winner) he ran in Class 4 running way off the pace and then finishing on.His last run was in VB came from off the pace and finished an easy 6th 8.5 lengths behind the winner.In this run there was a good spurt positive change in equipment and Jockey and after the process of elimination of other horses he was looking like a good bet as intent was clear.The best way to judge form is to watch every race the following day after the races and see what the other horses were doing in the back end of the field we only focus on the front but if you focus on the back markers you will notice horses that are hiding true form make a note of them and follow their progress when they next run look for sutle changes and then make your decision.
e)Process of Elimination:After you have studied the form of the horses make a note of the ones with a chance of winning and dont worry if you have 6 horses that you feel are likely to win the race. Then for things like jockey, equipment, trainer distance and handicap you are more likely to eliminate half the horses when you apply "Asses the Field" logic. After this process there will be one or two horses that will stand out and then its up to Luck which horse is better.

f) Pattern:  This should be your determining factor on which horse u should back.Every trainer has a pattern when he intends to try his horses.There are 5 Types of Trainers. Great Trainers dont need to name them, Good Trainers These are the ones who are consitantly trying,Gamble trainers whos horses sprout wings when the Right money comes their way,Hopeless trainers you should know them by now and Puppets these are trainers who have licences to accomodate other trainer horses.If you Ignore horses belonging to the last 3 categories and foucs your selection the top 2 catogaries you will do well. I am not going to name names on who I believe are the good bad and ugly trainers but you should do your own analysis on that. I am not suggesting to ignore horses belonging to Gamble trainers if you like their horses only decide in the last 3 minutes before race time as the odds will dictate intent.

Finally I hope I have shared some if any good pointers in helping you having a successful day at the races and remember Racing is for Life treat it as a job or your own business and be consistent with it the rewards will come.

Don't become a prey to bloggers and websites who want to sell you tips and throwing out challenges to others and then retracting them when they fail become the master of your own destiny as If they were making so much money on their "EXPERT TIPPING" then why are they charging people to share their " Expert Knowledge".

Like I have said before "Success Leaves Clues" and you will not find such people boasting to you about their Success. 

Good Luck till the next Topic.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Pune 15th august 2012


Race 1: Dictator,

Race 2: Amadeus,

Race 3: Sterling Silver,                Upset: Donata,(note)

Race 4: Mzima,              Upset: Mountain Song,

Race 5: Marengo,Barringo,

Race 6: Mateus Rose,Rembrandt,

Race 7: Celestial Call,Lorelei,

Race 8: Miracle Of Mercy,Queens Kiss

Race 9: Greatness,  Upset: Talk Of The Town, dont Ignore If tried he will win Today.

Race 10: Oriental Sapphire

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Pune 12th August 2012

Race 1: Open race with many contenders horses 1-2-4-8-9 all have a fair chance is tried.Divine, is in good form and has the in form jockey should be the one to beat.Macho Uno, is sitting on a good handicap positive change of jockey and benefit of 2 easy runs can upset.

Tips: 2) Divine,                    Upset:9) Macho Uno,

Race 2: Another open gamble race horses 1-3-4-5-6-7-9 all have a fair chance if tried. Prince, has the potential to win but not sure of intent.Make note of Splash, likes this course is tracking well and nicely placed on handicap should run a fair race if tried and can upset.

Tips; Prince,                 Upset: Splash,

Race 3: A very open race and any of the 7 horses can win.Illustrious, is a different class animal has his fair share of problems if he is fit he will win.Saba, loves this track and well placed on handicap with in form jockey all she needs is intent.

Tips: 7) Saba,       1) Illustrious,

Race 4: Tag Along Tommy, and Emerald Valley, look the top 2 contenders jockey skills will matter in the end. the second named has a slight edge.

Tips: Emerald Valley,Tag Along Tommy,

Race 5: Monsieur Strauss, should win here if the jockey can handle the pressure.Dancing Splendour, is the joker in the pack should place is tracking very well.

Tips: Monsieur Strauss,                      Upset: Dancing Splendour,

Race 6: Mahiki, has a benefit of a run hence a slight edge over the field. Strategy, is the dark horse who looks well prepared and can upset.

Tips: Mahiki,                      Upset: Strategy

Race 7: A Very interesting race,Cardinal, for some reason has lost form not sure what wrong if right he will win but hard to say can win if everything is ok with him.Weizhou, finished second in this race won by Athilla last year age is against him so best to avoid.Ranthambhore, has done nothing wrong so far is a good animal and will be in the thick of things,Ancient Wonder, is in rousing form and should run well provided there is intent,Orito, is probably out handicap,From the rest horses Silken Touch, runs best fresh and Vittoria, who needs a stronger rider are ignored for these reasons,Dancing Glances, was finishing on well after having no luck in the race is out handicapped against A wonder and the others can upset but I have my doubts,Star Trainer, is one horse that can upset this set well placed on handicap jockey choice is a ?? but was given a easy run first up dragged the jockey to the post today I am fairly confident he will be tried and if I am right he will be the one to beat.

Tips: Star Trainer,Ancient Wonder,

Race 8: Starsonboard, who is tracking very well along with Astromia, should vie for honors the send named has a disadvantage because of the draw.Fire Engine,  is the joker in the pack.

Tips: Starsonboard,                   Upset: Fire Engine

Race 9: Macedonian, has come to hand now and should win today. Expect a lot of improvement from Okavango, today who should place at good odds.

Tips: Macedonian,                                       Upset: Okavango,

Race 10: Bayblues, and Wild Imagination, have a edge over this field.

Tips:Bayblues,                                       Upset: Wild Imagination

Days Best: Macedonian,
Double: Macedonian,Bayblues
Win or Kaichi Prospects: Emerald Valley,Monsieur Strauss,Mahiki, Starsonboard
Eachway or Place prospects:  Divine,Splash,Star Trainer,Okavango,Wild Imagination,

Bolt from the Blue: Illustrious,

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Pune 11 August 2012

Race 1: Looks a straight fight between Grand Design, and Swift Memories, the first named has an edge with a benefit of a run.

Tips: 2) Grand Design,

Race 2:This race is best to avoid, Smokey Baba, is tracking very well and carries good form from mumbai however he seems to warm up very late and that can be a problem on a short Pune straight.Jewelled, is also tracking well but has the same problem as the first named. From the rest there are a few unknown horses but Sherlock Holmes is looking very well prepared looks a speedy type and should be in the fray.Ancient Odyessy, looks packed with speed but is a H Metha horse hence best to decide at race time.

Tips:6) Smokey Baba,                              Upset:5) Sherlock Holmes

Race 3: Very Open race Horses 2-3-4-5-6-7 all have a fair chance its best to avoid or look for Value EW bet here.Horses 2-6-7 do represent value here Prince Arius, and Honey Bee, both run best when fresh Electra, also has merit but not sure of intent.

Tips: Honey Bee,Prince Arius,

Race 4: Incognito, who had an easy run first up is now ready to strike and should win here but Marauder, is the one to worry about as he is very well placed on handicap here his last run was bad but you never know with Ramus horses.

Tips: 6) Incognito,                       Upset:7) Marauder

Race 5: Pound Foolish, had a very easy run first up and should improve a lot from that run will be the one to beat.Make note of Magic Melody, H Metha horse but is likely to be tried here can upset if I am right.

Tips: 6) Pound Foolish,                                 Upset:9)  Magic Melody

Race 6: Macchupicchu,Bling, Toss up Jockey skills will matter.

Tips: 1) Macchupicchu,

Race 7: Winston, is tracking very well to merit attention however has to beat first timer Cerro Negro, and Lightening Thunder, both horses are very well bred and are tracking very well too so will be a close call between the 3 and Jockey talent will matter at the post.

Tips:2)  Winston,6) Lightening Thunder,                 Upset:3) Cerro Negro

Race 8: A very open race horses 1-3-6-7-8-9-11-13 are all in the fray with some merit if tried best to avoid or look for value.  Brunello, looks the best of the fancied runners and runs with a good chance after an easy run this season. Make note of Your Lordship, in this race who has had 10 runs so far in TERMS races today is rated 15 running in VB first time in a handicap race hence expect improvement 50kgs on her back and will stay the distance and I I am right will be the one that can upset here.

Tips:6) Brunello,                       Upset: 7) Your Lordship

Race 9: Horses 1-4-5-7-8-9 are all linked to H Metha only one of the 6 will be tried which one god knows.From the rest Dream Weaver, and King Warrior, have no form. Which leaves Eskimo, staring at me like a sore Thumb.

Tips:3) Eskimo

Race 10: Wings Of Glory, has merit to win if tried here best to decide at race time.Guns N Roses, is the danger will be right there dont ignore.

Tips ;9) Wings Of Glory,                              Upset: 7)Guns N Roses

Days Best: Eskimo,
Double: Eskimo,Incognito,
Win or Kaichi Prospects: Incognito,Eskimo,Grand Design,Macchupicchu,Winston, Smokey Baba,  
Eachway or Place Prospects: Sherlock Holmes,Honey Bee,Pound FoolishLightening Thunder,Guns N Roses

Bolt from the blue:  Your Lordship

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