Monday, September 20, 2010

My Response

Normally I don't like to justify my actions as I do believe that I try and give my best in what i do. I accept that I have a different way of looking at a race card and it has nothing to do with which horse is the favorite.

However in response to Mr K V Ramana's AKA Venduku and the various alias's message all I can say is If you don't want to get confused the don't visit the Blog.... Its simple.

Since it is a fresh topic I have decided to write my views on certain myths that if it is a favorite it has to win but before I do that I would like everyone to take there time and read an article written by Mr Sharan Kumar who in the past few months has changed his angle on journalism on racing in racing Pulse which has made me admire his goodwill to share some of the pro's and con's on horse racing and how it is conducted in India below is the link to his article.
His article details many eye openers and facts that many a common punter over look.

Going back to the Myth that I don't Tip Favorites and confuse the followers of favorites will only come into prospective once you understand how I look at a race card and decide on what is worth backing and what is not, I do accept that 7 out of 10 times I am wrong but I only focus on making my money on the right 3.

I have been exposed to horse racing since I was a child, without naming names since I was 12 yrs old I have seen Jockeys, trainers owners in my growing stages many of them are still riding or training and that exposure of listening to all these people has given me a lot of exposure to the ins and outs of racing and I don't call my self a scholar but I do believe I have a lot to offer to an average punter who are not fortunate enough to have my background and knowledge.

There are many factors that affect a race and the horses that run in it, but in Indian racing there are additional factors and the most relevant factor that can decide the outcome is Connections, pattern and credibility if you can understand the above 3 factors half your job is done.... things like track work, fitness, jockey, pedigree are not relevant if above 3 factors are not understood.

many jockey's are interconnected so are trainers and owners, this web is every evolving as time passes by so its very important to be up to date with whats happening in the racing world which is very tough for anyone. the amount of money that changes hands in horse racing is so huge that it fair to say if cricketers are paid to bowl No Bowls can u image what the jockeys can be paid to and cash being a un traceable commodity its practically impossible to prove anything.
Many Years ago in the 90's a particular owner who had 12 horses under him sold all of them overnight and when I asked him why he told me a jockey on one of his horses was paid Rs 1000 not to finish in the top 4...haha. however I wont write more on these topics but will make a commitment to write on different issues in the future and would like your input on what topics you would prefer.

Now back to how I read a card When I see a Race card I first see the card without the jockeys a day before then I study the night odds and go from there.
The first question I ask myself is why is this particular horse at these odds, Normally I start with the favorite and their relevant form then I look at horses that can beat the favorite quoted in the night odds I then study the relevant forms of horses that are running against the favorite and also try and establish relevant jockeys and trainers connections of other horses with the favorite... finally I look for patterns it is one of the most important factor in studying the card which unfortunately many people either don't know or don't understand. When I say pattern is different trainers have different patterns... i.e Training patterns, runs in between races, flow of money,jockey factor, odds and preparation of there horses. If you look at first race of Sunday this is how I came to deciding that 2 horses look the likely candidates.... Since It was distance race over 12 flg I first eliminated horses that were running out of their compass as per breeding i.e ANEMOS bred to go up to a mile or a bit over, TINTORETTO is in a similar radar, WINNING TREAT out of class, STAR INVITATION can stay but first run over 6flg which left with 3 credible horses of which I discounted the winner because I dint think he would beat O Magic... and reason I opted for REINSTATE as my second choice because of last run. Now ORIENTAL MAGIC was my selection due to the trainers Pattern of how he gets his winners... S K Sunderjis horses...Never win in Steele plate, Very Rarely win in there first run, almost away have a positive change of jockey and always brought down in handicap in that particular season... with all those ticks an lack of company she should have won and hence my pick.

The only reason I was not very confident on the horse is because of the Wadhwan Horse in the field S Invitation so I ignored the race.


I don't want favorites to lose or misguide people with some vested interest as assumed by people in the past I don't see the value in backing them if I have the slightest doubt in the race. Some people may find this logic utter rubbish but this info is for the ones who are curious.

4 comments:

horse mouth said...

Yes its look true and quite informative. I would like to request you if u also write your three factors (connections,Pattern,Credibility)with your selections.

FA said...

Tiger
Very well said and I totally agree with you comments. This article of yours is for like minded people who share the same views and have the same passion for horse racing as you do. Please for God's sake do not get disheartned with useless comments and continue to post as always.
Thanks for tips as Swahili Confiserie and to top it all signing off with GLORIA

Turf Wizard said...

Dear Tiger,
Informative post but I request you not to put in public as to how you tip horses and the reasons for your selections, keep your trade secrets with yourselves.
I think you have taken some nasty visitors comments upon yourself, I had written to you earlier (when you stopped posting for some time last year) that these people cannot be changed or corrected, just ignore them.
Each person must have a unique way of analysing things and come to conclusions of his/her own, some people may not have this skill but do have this dirty habit of being critical of fellow bloggers only god can save them. Please do not reveal your secrets or try to justify your choices to these people they are not worthy of such guidance.
The one way I start my selection is like you, analyzing the card at acceptance stage so I get the true picture of all the runners whereas after the race card is put up I do tend to get influenced by the jockey's declared to ride them (though I later discard my fancied horses if they are ridden by Shakti Singh or D.Patel and a few of their likes, I mean no offence to these jockeys but they are never or very rarely on job), then like you, I do look at the odds, then I visit all blogs to take expert opinion put them all in one place with my own choices and come to my own conclusion on which horse to back and the ones to stay away from. I do not feel let down if my own choice or others tip fails.
In horse racing, nobody (including the owner, trainer and jockey) can be 100% confident about their wards winning the best thing the combo can do is to prepare the animal and ride the horse to its best advantage and hope results come their way.
I hope one day these mischievous visitors learn to stop visiting others blogs for opinions or choices and start enjoying the game of horse racing and learn to make money if they can rather than critisizing other's valuable and hard work.
Keep yourself going in the best of your ability and spirit for all sincere followers of your blog.
Best of luck.
Rgds

Horseman said...

My Dear Tiger
greetings, and it is good of you to script a very informative write up
about how or what way you look at the race card and arrive at a probable horse or horses.
thank you for sharing your experiences.
it is really nice to share and care
may you continue to come out with more.
thank you
easwaran

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