Here is how I read the pune Derby please read with a open mind and vote on the poll.Please note this is only my opinion and not a formula of picking horses I am open to suggestion as long as no personal comments are made and I also understand that after all this I could be totally wrong but that cant change the way I look at big races.
1)Antonios, 3y bc R (56) Glory Of Dancer (GB) / Twin StarBy : Portroe (USA)Stud: Nanoli StudTrainer: S S Shah
In my opinion a very talented horse started his campagn in April and won uninterested by 5 lengths purly on class.Well rested till july when brought back on track and rushed into preparations for the THE F. D. WADIA TROPHY 1400M Race 70 on 17th Aug where a ran green and looked underdone finished just ahead of F Flame at level terms where F Flame had a benifit of a run and finished 5lths behind Devine conceding 3 kgs. on handicapping terms he was 9 lghts inferior to Devine and on level terms with F Flame.was rushed in running THE GENERAL RAJENDRASINHJI TROPHY (GRADE 3) in a span of 13 days (which is a very short span for a horse in between race 91 on 30th Aug lost D Dynamite in the Stewards room conceeding 8 kgs to him but on paper beat him by 1 3/4 lghts hence on paper D Dynamite is 8 lgths superior however since his run was in a span of 13 days and now well rested and prepared with a stronger rider (malesh) who should be riding him in the derby expect a improvement of atleast 7-10 lenghts after this race.
2) Autonomy 3y, bg Razeen (USA)/All Heart Steinbeck (USA)
Trainer:Bezan Chenoy
Breeder:Usha Stud
Owner/s:Mr. Jaydev M. Mody rep. J. M. Livestock Pvt Ltd
Rating:80
One of the best 3yos in the country and should be know as one of the unluckiest in his crop is the only horse to beat Set Alight and Red Romeo on level terms. After a 7 month layoff ran THE S. A. POONAWALLA MILLION (GR.2)TERMS - 3 years old only 1600 mts with 60 kgs and lost to F Ace by a wisker conceeding 6kg which on level terms means he is superior then F Ace by atleat 9 lenghts concedering it was his first run compared to F Ace's 3 rd run an improvement of 5-7 lenghts is expected.
3) Dancing Dynamite 3y, dkbg Glory Of Dancer (GB)/Double WishSir Bruce
Trainer:Mansoor Shah
Breeder:Nanoli Stud
Owner/s:Mr V. N. Babu
Rating:80
Should run Favorite in the derby has nothing wrong so far is probably the only horse that has run all his races well prepared which gives him a negetive chance in the derby as others have room for a lot of improvement.won the THE P. HADOW TROPHYA Handicap for Horses rated 60 TO 86 over a mile beat the under prepared Aquadizic well and was the best prepared horse in the set the beaten by Antinos on paper giving him 8 kgs over 1800 once again ran very well prepared and proved to at least be 8lengths superior then Antonios on the day. Will handle the trip well but I dont think the horse will improve any further from last run as he has been at his peak.
4) Flaming Ace 3y, chg China Visit (USA)/PrevlenceRazeen (USA)
Trainer:Karthik G
Breeder:Usha Stud
Owner/s:Dr M. A. M. Ramaswamy
Rating:73
Another horse that has reached his peak, Beat Autonomy who was running after a 7 month layoff but on level terms and with benefit of a run Autonomy looks atleast 16 lenghts Superior.
5) Rising Hero 3y, bg Storm Trooper (USA)/Naval Guardian Polish Navy
Trainer:Altamash Ahmed
Breeder:Pratap Stud
Owner/s:Mr R. S. Mehta
Rating:48
Not upto this class but will not disgrace himself in the race if you take D Dynamite as a yard stick he is only 15lths behind with room for imporvement and can finish on board.
6:Phenomenale 3y, dkbf Montjeu/ContrarianMujadil
Trainer:P Shroff
Breeder:Nanoli Stud
Owner/s:Mrs Villoo C. Poonawalla, Mr J. K. Rattonsey & Mr Hoosain S. Nensey
Rating:53
One of the most talked about horses in current time only raced twice and can improve won the september handicap in style however lack of experience can go against her chance looks highly unlikely to spring a surprise maybe mumbai but keep in mind her timing of 1-38.74 is the best of the lot.
In my opinion the top 3 horses will be the to 3 contenders. Antonios showed a improvement of 7-10 lenghts after his first run and can improve a further 7 lenghts with malesh aboard and good rest. F ace who reached his peak when beating Autonomy showed a improvment of 9lths since first run if you compare Divine as a comman horse hence Antionis can sho a improvement of 17 lengths since his first run and jockey factor which is a 6lths improvement over F ace.As explained Autonomy at derby time will be atleast 16lths better the F Ace hence 10 lenghts better then Antonios.As explained D Dynamite was 8lths superior to Antionios who can show an improvement between 7-10 lths since that last met and D Dynamite reaching his peak it is possible that Antoniois will beat D Dynamite once again on level terms. Hence Par mishap or bad luck Autonomy should not lose the derby and Antonios will follow him home with D Dynamite and PHENOMENALE.
3 comments:
hram67
Dancing Dynamite has WON 4 races compared to 1 by Antonios / Phenomenale / Rising Hero and Flaming Ace.Autonomy has WON 2
( technically 3 )
Going by that factor , one has to give credit to DD and ignore the likes of Antonios.
( had to delete the earlier comment as it was factually incorrect )
Hi Shyam,
I understand and agree to your point. But the point I am trying to put across is D Dynamite has always run fit and tuned to the minute so has Phenomenale on whom pesi had worked very hard to get her to her peak. take an example of F Arrow who ran under perpared in his first run and ran 5l behind Divine.when he beat Autonomy he was tuned to the minute for the race and showed a improvement of 12lths when he beat divine by 7lths.
Autonomy was definatly under perpared for the day with one easy mockrace and 4 spurts before his run now with the benifit of a good run he has a lot of room for improvement which can be anything between 7-12 lghts.
In the cas of antionios he was definately under prepared for his first run he was then rushed against D Dynamite in a 13 day span where he beat her now well rested and being systematicly prepared and with Malesh aboard can make a big difference in my opinion IF YOU ONLY COMPARE the malesh's ridding with C S Jodha only there Antionis has a 7 length advantage.
See I all honesty if D Dynamite wins this i will be happy to see a small time owner suceed as Horses like this dont come that often.
The only thing i am struggling with is who will make the pace of the race as all 6 are contenders.
Regards
Post a Comment